Moreover, Vietnam has managed to diversify its export markets and products so it may avoid external shocks and negative impacts caused by other markets, said Ms. Eugenia Victorino, ANZ Bank economist on Mekong Sub-region and ASEAN.
The year of 2016 witnessed a 1.36% rise in agriculture, a record low since 2011. Experts of ANZ believe that Vietnam’s agriculture will get out of the hard bottom and become the main driving force for Vietnam’s GDP growth.
They also highly value Vietnam’s industrialization process, which saw fine outcomes in 2016, and is likely to attain more achievements in 2017.
They affirm that Vietnam will take the lead in the last wave of industrialization in the Southeast Asian region, thanks to its location on the important transport corridor. Vietnam operates important shipping routes connecting China, India and ASEAN countries. Thanks to its location and industrialization process, Vietnam will become a bridge connecting ASEAN’s peripheral economies to the entire Southeast Asia.
The experts still look on the optimistic side of the Vietnamese ASEAN although the Trans-Pacific Partnership has officially been cancelled by the US.
The cancelation of TPP could only reduce the foreign investment flow in the country to produce exports to the US. However, Vietnam’s export turnover to the US accounts only for 22% of the total revenue. As a result, the diversified export market of Vietnam will not be heavily affected, stated Mr. Khoon Goh, Head of Analysis Division of ANZ.
However, the recovery of the US economy together with the tightened monetary policy will have certain impacts on investment flows in Vietnam. Particularly, FED’s potential plans to increase interest rates may lead to a drop in indirect investment flows into the country. However, Mr. Khoon Goh still believes that indirect investment flows will not be affected.By Duy Tien