Vietnam to enter “elderly population structure” in 2026: study

• National population database to be completed next year
• Hanoi’s population breaks forecast for 2030

Vietnam will enter the “elderly population structure” in 2026, which will last for 28 years until 2054, according to an in-depth study of the 2019 population and housing census.

The structure will be followed by a “very elderly population” period from 2055 to 2069.

Meanwhile, the “golden population structure” in Vietnam will end in 2039.

The study also reveals that according to the medium-term forecast, Vietnam’s population will reach 104.5 million in 2029, 110.8 million in 2039, and 116.9 million in 2069.

If the sex ratio at birth remains unchanged, Vietnam is likely to record an excess of 1.5 million males aged 15-49 by 2034 and 2.5 million by 2059.

Vu Thi Thu Thuy, Director of the Population and Labour Statistics Department at the General Statistics Office (GSO), said the birth rate in Vietnam is currently around the replacement fertility rate, which will slow population growth rate to less than 1 percent annually over the next 10 years.

There are considerable differences in the birth rate among regions and population groups, she stressed, saying it is quite high in some ethnic minority groups such as the Mong, with 3.59 children per woman.

Meanwhile, northern midland and mountainous localities and those in the Central Highlands have the highest birth rates, while the lowest being in southeastern Vietnam and the Mekong Delta.

With the current birth rate, population structure and imbalanced sex ratio at birth, the population will age and lack men in certain age groups in the future, the study pointed out.

The census, the fifth of its kind since the national reunification in 1975, collected basic demographic information on more than 96.2 million people in nearly 26.9 million households nationwide.