Vietnamese GDP growth to slow down during remainder of year
Vietnam’s GDP growth rate is unlikely to achieve the target of between 6% and 6.3% set for this year due to the impact of the fourth wave of COVID-19 infections across the country, according to industry insiders.
Due to these changes, the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR) has therefore lowered its forecast for GDP growth by between 1% and 1.5% compared to the projection made during the first quarter of this year.
Similarly, the World Bank has also lowered its forecast for Vietnamese GDP growth to 4.8%, despite the national economy recording robust achievements back in the first half of the year.
In line with these changes, Michael Kokalari, chief economist of VinaCapital, pointed out that these can be viewed as optimistic forecasts compared to the real situation, adding that it is not feasible to achieve the EPS (earnings per share) growth of 38% this year.
Rahul Kitchlu, acting country director at the World Bank in Vietnam, emphasised that the country’s economic recovery during the second half of the year is largely dependent on COVID-19 containment efforts, the efficiency of the vaccine rollout, and fiscal policies aimed at supporting affected local businesses and households.
He projects that Vietnamese GDP growth rate is likely to achieve between 6.5% and 7% from 2022.
Sharing this viewpoint, Kokalari expressed his belief that the EPS profit will increase sharply moving into next year.