Vietnam GDP growth likely to hit 8% this year in base-case scenario
The Vietnamese economy is anticipated to expand 8% this year in the base-case scenario, providing that there are no adverse external factors facing the national economy in the remaining months of the year, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI).
This is one of the two scenarios the MPI has envisaged for the economy this year taking into account ongoing global uncertainty and complexity.
In the worse-case scenario, GDP growth is likely to reach roughly 7.5%, particularly with many challenges and uncertainties expected in the fourth quarter of the year.
The economy grew 5.03% in the first quarter, 7.7% in the second quarter and 13.67% in the third quarter of the year.
With regard to Vietnamese economic prospects ahead in 2023, the MPI has noted that there will be both challenges and opportunities amid inflationary pressure worldwide and a gloomy outlook for global economic growth. In this case, it said that drastic measures should be taken to maintain stable economic growth moving forward.
MPI Deputy Minister Tran Quoc Phuong pointed out that high inflation in major economies is anticipated to ultimately cause economic recession in the long-term, and that global inflation will certainly impact the local economy as the country’s openness to trade is relatively large.
The MPI also warned about other factors such as natural disasters and epidemics, and it therefore recommended that the Government choose a growth scenario of roughly 6.5% for 2023.
Phuong revealed that 46.7% of public investment capital has been disbursed so far in comparison to the plan assigned by the Prime Minister, with nearly VND35,000 billion higher compared to the previous year.
This can largely be attributed to the fact that the total amount of public investment capital this year is higher than last year, leading to a higher rate of capital disbursement, he said.
